The probability that Apple will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 rose sharply by 18.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 23.4% to 41.8% on Polymarket. This significant repricing was confirmed by whale activity, with $16K net flow into YES contracts over the same period.
Whales accounted for $30K in buy volume and $14K in sell volume, contributing to a net positive flow aligned with the price move. The 24-hour Polymarket volume for this contract was $35K, indicating that whale trades represented a substantial portion of the market activity. A total of 93 unique whales participated in trading, alongside 501 unique traders overall since the market’s inception, which has accumulated lifetime volume of $243K.
The alignment of whale buying with the price increase suggests confident support for a higher likelihood of Apple retaining the top market cap spot by the end of July.
| Market | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2673623 |
| 24h price change | +18.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 41.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 41.8% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $16K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $30K / $14K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 93 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $35K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 501 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.