The probability that Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10 collapsed by 26.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours, falling from 27.5% to 1.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a sharp shift in market consensus against the withdrawal happening within the specified timeframe.
Despite the steep decline in the YES contract price, whale trading activity ran counter to the price move, marking a divergence between large traders and the broader market. Whales did not push the price lower by selling YES contracts; instead, their flow diverged from the downward tape, suggesting a conflicting view or hedging behavior amid the rapid selloff.
Polymarket recorded $124K in volume on this market in the past 24 hours, indicating considerable trading interest accompanying the price swing. The combination of a steep drop in implied probability alongside whale flow moving against the price trend highlights a complex dynamic rather than a uniform conviction among traders.
This divergence between whale flow and price suggests that although retail and general market participants have sharply reduced the odds of Iran withdrawing from the MOU negotiations by July 10, large traders are either positioning differently or absorbing the selling pressure. The evolving interplay will be an important signal to watch in the hours before the deadline.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849065 |
| 24h price change | +26.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 27.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $124K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.