A single trade of $785K on “Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion?” marks a significant wager against the market consensus, which priced this outcome at just 0.15%. This bet comes from wallet @tripping, which also placed large buys of $650K on Oliver Bearman, $530K on Pierre Gasly, and $158K on Isack Hadjar in the same market, totaling $2.12M across four trades today.
The market has seen total volume of $7.83M, with whale activity heavily skewed to the buy side: $788K bought versus $1K sold by 32 unique whales in the last 24 hours. This trade aligns with the broader whale flow, representing a strong push by large traders toward underdog outcomes.
@tripping’s historical record shows 56.2% accuracy across 388 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.2818, based on $88.36M lifetime volume, 682,721 trades, and participation in 832 markets. This performance history adds context to the sizable bets placed today on multiple longshot drivers.
By backing Sergio Pérez with $785K at an implied probability of 0.15%, the trade stands out as a substantial wager against the consensus. It highlights a notable divergence between this wallet’s conviction and the market’s pricing in the F1 Drivers’ Champion event. This concentration of capital on low-probability outcomes signals a different risk appetite or insight within the whale cohort on this market.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? |
| Event | F1 Drivers’ Champion |
| Wallet | @tripping · 0x6480542954b70a674a74bd1a6015dec362dc8dc5 |
| Amount | $785K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-09T18:02:28Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.