The Polymarket contract asking whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 saw its YES price plunge 20.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, dropping from 32.0% to 11.5%.
This sharp decline in market-implied probability contrasts with whale behavior, which moved against the price trend. Over the same period, whales collectively placed net bets worth $25K on YES, supported by $36K in buy volume and $11K in sell volume across 103 unique whale traders.
Total 24-hour volume on the market was $42K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $182K spread across 358 unique traders. The divergence between whale flow and the falling price suggests conflicting signals among large bettors and the broader market sentiment.
This tension between price and whale flow highlights uncertainty and differing interpretations of available information within the Polymarket community.
The combined price drop and opposing whale activity underscore a complex dynamic in this market, signaling that although the consensus is now less optimistic on withdrawal, significant capital from whales remains aligned with the YES outcome.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853059 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 11.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 11.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $25K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $36K / $11K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 103 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $42K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 358 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.