The market “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” saw its YES contract price fall sharply by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 67.0% to 51.0% according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 9, 2026. This represents a significant repricing of the likelihood that new UFO files will be released by the stated deadline.
Contrary to the downward price movement, whale activity showed a net inflow of $3K into YES contracts during the same period, with $4K in buy volume against $1K in sells, across 23 unique whales. This divergence between whale flow and price action is notable, as typically large traders and price trends align more closely.
Overall Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market reached $6K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $22K and involving 186 unique traders. The Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 45.5%, lower than the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 51.0%, indicating some discrepancy between on-chain data and the Polymarket feed.
The combined picture shows a market sharply revising down the chance of Trump releasing new UFO files by the deadline, even as whales increase their exposure to YES contracts. This divergence suggests differing interpretations of available information between retail price action and larger trader bets, highlighting uncertainty in this event’s outcome.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2641102 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 51.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 67.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 45.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $4K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 23 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 186 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.