The YES contract on “Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” surged 32.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours from 58.5% to 91.0%, signaling a strong market reassessment of the likelihood that the public sale will exceed $30 million.
This sharp repricing was supported by whale activity, which aligned with the price move. Over 121 unique whales participated, collectively buying $113K and selling $59K worth of YES contracts, resulting in a net $54K inflow into YES positions. This whale net flow and volume were significant compared to the total Polymarket 24-hour volume of $135K, underscoring the influence of large traders in driving the price shift.
The market has seen a lifetime volume of $220K with 356 unique traders contributing to this contract’s liquidity, indicating a well-engaged participant base. The combined whale buying pressure and the substantial price increase suggest growing confidence among informed traders that the Credible public sale will surpass the $30 million threshold.
This coordinated price and flow movement highlights a notable shift in market sentiment, with whales and the broader market moving in tandem to reprice the odds sharply upward. It signals that the market now places a much higher probability on a successful large-scale public sale commitment for Credible.
| Market | Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845812 |
| 24h price change | +32.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 91.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 58.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 91.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $54K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $113K / $59K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 121 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $135K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 356 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.