The probability that July 2026 will be the hottest month on record surged 36.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 43.5% to 79.5% on Polymarket. This significant increase reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment toward that outcome.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, as 33 unique large traders contributed a net $11K inflow into YES contracts. Their buy volume totaled $15K against $4K in sales, underscoring sustained demand at higher odds. This whale flow accounted for a substantial portion of the total 24-hour market volume, which stood at $17K.
Since inception, the market has seen $28K in volume with participation from 127 unique traders, indicating a moderately active market focused on this climate prediction.
The combined price surge and whale buying suggest growing confidence or new information influencing expectations that July 2026 will set a new temperature record. The alignment of large trader flow with the price move strengthens the signal of this rapidly evolving consensus on Polymarket.
| Market | Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820808 |
| 24h price change | +36.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 79.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 43.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 79.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $15K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 33 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $17K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 127 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.