The market betting on whether Core CPI MoM will be 0.2% in July experienced a dramatic shift in sentiment over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price falling 41.5 percentage points from 85.0% to 43.5% as of July 15, 2026.
This significant drop in the implied probability contrasts sharply with whale trading behavior, which diverged from the price move. Despite the steep decline in the YES price, whales did not increase their net buying into the YES side, signaling a disconnect between large traders and the broader market sentiment reflected in the price.
Trading volume for this market remained modest at $6K over the 24-hour window.
The combined picture of a steep price drop paired with a lack of whale support highlights a complex dynamic in this Core CPI MoM prediction market. It signals a market in flux where the broader crowd is reassessing the odds aggressively, but larger players are not yet fully aligned with this shift.
| Market | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2810506 |
| 24h price change | +41.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 43.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 85.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.