Breaking
Europe’s 2026 FIFA World Cup win odds surge 41.4 pp to 100% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp rally with $71K net buys, pushing the market to full certainty within 24 hours.
Jul 19
#%smarket-movement
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 9 stories.
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds drop 32.1pp despite $3K whale buying in 24h
Whale activity diverges from a sharp 32.1 percentage point plunge in Alibaba’s AI model market odds on Polymarket.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 41.5 points as whale flow diverges
YES contract on Iran military action against a Gulf State fell from 57.0% to 15.5% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price drops 51 pp to 40.5% amid whale-flow divergence
Polymarket’s Home Secretary market reverses sharply as whale buying diverges from falling odds, signaling conflicting trader sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
‘Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?’ YES odds plunge 41.5 pp to 43.5%
Polymarket's Core CPI July contract saw a sharp 41.5 percentage point drop in YES price, while whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES odds drop 29pp to 34.0%
The market’s sharp decline in YES price contrasts with whale activity, which did not support the move.
Jul 15
Breaking
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 42.5pp to 82.5% in 24h
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 66.7 Points to 87.8% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market pricing both drove a sharp revaluation on the likelihood of Iran taking military action on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy odds drop 15pp to 34.5% despite whale selling
Polymarket’s ‘Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?’ market saw a sharp 15.0pp decline in YES price while whale flow diverged by selling into the dip.
Jul 11