The Polymarket contract “Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?” experienced a dramatic decline in its YES price, falling 54.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 19.8%, down from an estimated 73.8% a day earlier. Despite this steep drop in implied probability, whale activity moved counter to the price trend, with a net $4K flowing into YES positions.
Whales generated $7K in buy volume and $3K in sell volume across 31 unique accounts, indicating active engagement but a preference for buying YES contracts amid the price collapse. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract stood at $5K, with lifetime volume at $72K and 242 unique traders participating since inception.
The divergence between whale flow and price is underscored by a notable discrepancy between Polymarket’s current YES price of 19.8% and Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 64.3%, highlighting conflicting signals between the on-chain data and the Polymarket front-end pricing. This gap suggests either rapid repricing by retail traders or a lag in on-chain settlement reflecting recent market moves.
| Market | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2414230 |
| 24h price change | +54.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 19.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 73.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 64.3% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 31 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 242 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.