The Polymarket contract “US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” saw its YES price plunge 25.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 35.0% to 10.0% as of the July 15 snapshot.
Despite this significant negative repricing, whale flow diverged from the price trend, indicating that large traders did not participate in the sell-off. The divergence between the downward price movement and whale betting patterns suggests that while retail or smaller investors drove the price down, whales remained steady or neutral in their exposure to the YES outcome.
The market recorded $43K in volume during this period, reflecting active trading amid the shifting odds. The contrasting signals between the sharp drop in price and the lack of corresponding whale flow highlight a disconnect in market sentiment or information processing among different trader segments.
This pattern implies that although the market consensus has moved decisively against the likelihood that the US will charge Hormuz fees by the end of 2026, large stakeholders have not yet aligned their positions with this view.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 35.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $43K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.