The market on whether Yvette Cooper will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026 saw a dramatic shift, with the YES contract rising 45.9 percentage points in the past 24 hours to 53.4%, up from 7.6% about a day earlier. This sharp repricing reflects a significant reassessment of her prospects by traders.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, as 74 unique whales contributed a net $9K of buying into YES contracts over the same period, with $20K in buy volume outweighing $11K in sells. The combined whale and overall market volume was $22K in the last 24 hours, out of a total lifetime market volume of $49K, indicating concentrated recent interest.
Despite this, the on-chain Polydata mid-price remains far lower at 9.6%, suggesting some discrepancy between the Polymarket feed and broader on-chain trading data. Still, the coordinated surge in price and whale buying on Polymarket points to a growing conviction in Cooper’s likelihood to secure the Chancellor position.
This rapid and sizable odds jump, supported by whale flows, signals a meaningful shift in market sentiment. Traders are re-evaluating the political landscape, with the price and flow data together highlighting a notable move in this prediction market.
| Market | Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632930 |
| 24h price change | +45.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 53.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 7.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 9.6% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $20K / $11K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 74 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $22K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 230 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.