Wallet 0x2c33…0563 made the largest single trade on Polymarket in the past 24 hours, buying $1.64M on the question “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” at a market-implied probability of just 0.05%. This wager stands out for its size and because it directly challenges the consensus odds, marking a significant bet against the crowd.
The same wallet also placed two additional large buys on the same outcome, totaling $704K and $226K, bringing its total exposure today to $2.57M on this longshot market. The overall market volume for this question hit $132.45M, with whale activity on the World Cup Winner market showing $11.65M bought versus $2.85M sold by 1,673 unique whales over the last 24 hours. This trade joins the broader whale flow pushing into this market.
Wallet 0x2c33…0563 has a strong track record, with 62.5% accuracy across 3,520 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.2200. It ranks #13 on the 30-day trader leaderboard, having realized $5.04M in profit on $213.08M volume. Over its lifetime, the wallet has traded $320.26M across 298,384 trades in 3,594 markets.
The World Cup Winner event spans 50 markets with $3.95B in lifetime volume and 150,643 traders. The largest trader in this event controls 4.9% of its volume. The market closes in six days, and the event’s top winner has netted $36.69M so far, while the largest loser stands at $183.31M.
This trade signals a significant move by an experienced trader backing a highly unlikely outcome according to current market pricing. Its size and timing highlight a notable divergence from consensus as the World Cup Winner market approaches closure.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563 |
| Amount | $1.64M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-14T20:47:37Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.