The market on whether Spain will be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup saw a dramatic shift as the YES price fell 53.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 59.5% to just 6.5% on Polymarket Breaking feed. This represents a major revaluation of Spain’s chances in the semifinals within a single day.
Despite this steep decline in the market price, whale activity diverged from the price action. Over the same 24-hour period, 43 unique whales bought $26K worth of YES contracts and sold only $9K, resulting in a net flow of $17K into YES positions. This divergence between whale buying and the sharp price drop signals conflicting interpretations among large traders and the broader market.
Polymarket’s current YES price of 6.5% contrasts sharply with the on-chain mid-price tracked by Polydata, which stands at 27.5%, adding another layer of complexity to the market’s pricing dynamics. The total 24-hour volume for this market was $26K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $144K across 573 unique traders.
This combination of a steep price drop alongside substantial whale buying suggests a split in conviction about Spain’s semifinal fate. Together, these data points highlight a contested outlook on Spain’s World Cup semifinal outcome.
| Market | Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2448418 |
| 24h price change | +53.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 59.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 27.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $17K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 43 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $26K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 573 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.