The Polymarket contract “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?” surged 18.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, with the YES price climbing from 59.5% to 78.0%. This sharp repricing signals a significant shift in market sentiment toward the likelihood of the launch happening on time.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, as 44 unique whales contributed a net flow of $5K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $7K, outpacing $3K in sell volume, reinforcing the upward momentum. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question was $6K, part of a lifetime market volume of $46K with 263 unique traders involved overall.
Interestingly, the Polymarket YES price at 78.0% differs notably from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 58.0%, indicating some divergence between the market’s live price and the deeper on-chain data snapshot. However, the whale flow and price movement are consistent, suggesting that large traders are driving the market consensus higher.
This combined surge in price and whale buying activity points to increased confidence among informed traders that SpaceX will meet its July 31 launch target. The market’s rapid upward revaluation reflects new information or shifting expectations that have convinced a broad base of participants to raise their odds sharply within a day.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2479863 |
| 24h price change | +18.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 78.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 59.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 58.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 44 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 263 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.