The Polymarket contract “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw its YES price plunge 54.1 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 95.2% to 41.0%. This sharp repricing marks a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Despite the steep decline in the YES price, whale trading activity painted a contrasting picture. Over the same 24-hour period, whales contributed a net $34K into YES positions, with $64K in buy volume outpacing $30K in sell volume across 80 unique whales.
The broader market volume for this contract in the past day was $48K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $106K with 184 unique traders involved. Interestingly, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 41.0% contrasts sharply with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 96.4%, indicating a significant discrepancy between different data sources.
The combined data indicates a market undergoing rapid reassessment, with retail and smaller traders pushing prices down while whales accumulate YES contracts. This tension between price action and whale flow signals a complex dynamic in how this geopolitical shipping event is being priced on-chain.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +54.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 41.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $34K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $64K / $30K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 80 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $48K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 184 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.