The market question “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw a dramatic shift in Polymarket’s YES price, dropping 60.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 34.5%, down from an estimated 95.3% a day earlier. This steep decline contrasts sharply with whale trading activity, which moved counter to the price trend.
Whales contributed a net inflow of $32K into YES contracts, with $60K in buy volume against $28K in sell volume during the same period. This divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable, as typically large trader activity aligns with market shifts. The market’s total 24-hour volume was $45K, while lifetime volume stands at $102K with 180 unique traders participating overall.
Adding to the complexity, Polydata’s on-chain overview price for YES sits at 96.4%, a significant divergence from the Polymarket Breaking feed price of 34.5%. This discrepancy highlights differing assessments between on-chain metrics and the live market price.
The combined picture shows a market undergoing rapid repricing downward, while whales appear to be accumulating YES contracts against the prevailing price trend.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +60.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $32K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $60K / $28K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 79 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $45K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 180 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.