The market for “US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?” saw its YES contract price plunge 43.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from about 50.0% to 6.8% according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 14.
Despite this steep decline in price, whale investors moved in the opposite direction, net buying $32K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $42K against $11K in sell volume, spread across 80 unique whales. This divergence between price action and whale flow stands out in a market with $50K traded in the last 24 hours and a lifetime volume of $61K from 145 unique traders.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 6.8% contrasts sharply with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 50.0%, indicating a significant discrepancy between the exchange price and on-chain data.
The opposing signals from price and whale flow suggest a complex dynamic: while the market’s visible odds have collapsed, significant whale buying interest persists.
Overall, the sharp repricing combined with whale buying divergence signals uncertainty and potential repositioning in this contract ahead of the August 2026 deadline.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907312 |
| 24h price change | +43.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 50.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $32K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $42K / $11K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 80 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $50K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 145 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.