The Polymarket contract asking whether 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse 48.6 percentage points in 24 hours, dropping from 95.3% to 46.8%. This dramatic revaluation signals a major shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Notably, this price plunge diverges sharply from whale trading activity. Despite the falling odds, whales net purchased $30K into YES contracts over the same period, with $57K in buy volume against $27K in sell volume across 73 unique whale traders.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market totaled $40K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $97K with 169 unique traders participating since inception. The on-chain Polydata mid-price remains at 96.4%, far above the current Polymarket YES price, underscoring the disconnect between on-chain valuations and the Polymarket interface.
The combination of a plunging YES price alongside a $30K net whale inflow points to conflicting signals: the broader market sharply repriced the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz downward, while whales accumulated positions betting on the opposite.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +48.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 46.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $30K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $57K / $27K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 73 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $40K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 169 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.