The Polymarket contract asking whether annual inflation will be 3.6% or less in June exploded higher by 98.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from a YES price of 1.6% to a full 100.0%. This dramatic repricing was supported by whale activity, which saw a net inflow of $19K into YES positions amid a total whale buy volume of $26K against $8K in sells. The flow aligns closely with the price move, indicating large traders moved in step with the market’s rapid shift.
Despite this breakout in the Polymarket YES price, the Polydata on-chain mid-price remains far lower at 0.55%, highlighting a significant divergence between the exchange’s live price and the underlying on-chain data. The market has traded $28K in the last 24 hours on a lifetime volume of $98K, involving 61 unique whales and 286 unique traders in total.
The coordinated whale buying and near-complete price rally suggest a strong consensus among major participants that inflation will be at or below 3.6% in June. The scale and speed of the move, combined with aligned whale flow, signals a decisive shift in market sentiment on this key economic indicator.
| Market | Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2491371 |
| 24h price change | +98.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 100.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 1.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 0.55% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $19K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 61 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $28K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 286 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.