The market “Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw the YES contract price rise sharply by 53.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 34.5% to 87.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of 2026-07-14. This dramatic repricing reflects a swift shift in market sentiment about the likelihood of the public sale surpassing $30 million in commitments.
Whale activity aligned with this price movement, with net inflows of $19K into YES positions driven by $38K in whale buy volume against $19K in sell volume, across 77 unique whale traders. Total 24-hour Polymarket volume on this market reached $34K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $58K from 126 unique traders.
Despite the strong price surge on Polymarket, the Polydata on-chain mid-price overview reports a significantly lower YES price of 54.0%, indicating a divergence between the market’s immediate price action and the broader on-chain consensus.
The combined rapid price increase and supportive whale buying suggest a robust reassessment of the event’s probability, signaling heightened confidence in the Credible public sale exceeding $30 million in commitments. The notable gap with the Polydata mid-price points to ongoing market debate or recent developments not yet fully reflected on-chain.
| Market | Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845812 |
| 24h price change | +53.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 34.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 54.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $19K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $38K / $19K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 77 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $34K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 126 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.