The Polymarket contract asking whether the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 saw its YES price spike by 65.2 percentage points over 24 hours, jumping from 34.5% to 99.8% as of the latest PM Breaking feed.
This dramatic repricing was matched by significant whale activity, with 323 unique whales contributing a net inflow of $351K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $600K, outpacing sell volume of $249K, signaling strong alignment between large traders and price direction.
Despite the surge on Polymarket, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES remains much lower at 22.5%, highlighting a notable divergence between the platform’s current market price and underlying on-chain data.
Total 24-hour volume on the market hit $500K, adding to a lifetime market volume of $1.74M across 1,351 unique traders. The volume and whale participation indicate heightened interest and conviction among major players.
The combined price surge and whale inflow suggest a rapid shift in market sentiment toward a blockade announcement being highly likely before the July 31 deadline.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +65.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 34.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $351K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $600K / $249K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 323 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $500K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,351 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.