The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES contract price surge 66.0 percentage points in 24 hours, climbing from 32.5% to 98.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 13.
This sharp repricing was supported by whale activity, with net whale flow of $262K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume reached $485K, outpacing $223K in sell volume, across 288 unique whales. Total 24-hour volume for the market was $329K, while lifetime market volume stands at $1.54M with 1,286 unique traders participating.
The alignment of whale flow and price movement indicates strong buying interest coinciding with the surge in market-implied probability. However, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 98.5% contrasts sharply with the on-chain Polydata mid-price of 25.5%, highlighting a significant divergence between the two sources.
The combined data suggest intense trader conviction driving the price near certainty, supported by substantial whale buying. This dynamic signals heightened market focus and liquidity on the question of a US blockade on Iran by the end of July, reflecting shifting expectations among major participants.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +66.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 98.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $262K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $485K / $223K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 288 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $329K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,286 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.