The market question “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES price fall sharply by 25.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 56.0% to 30.5% as of July 13, 2026. This sizable repricing reflects a significant shift in trader sentiment on Polymarket within a single day.
However, this price movement contrasts with whale activity, which flowed strongly into YES contracts during the same period. Whales bought $189K worth of YES contracts and sold $84K, resulting in a net $105K inflow into YES. The 24-hour whale participation included 207 unique whales, indicating broad engagement among large traders.
Interestingly, the 24-hour total trading volume on Polymarket for this market was $157K, which is less than the whale buy volume alone, underscoring whales’ outsized influence on this market’s activity. The lifetime market volume stands at $1.14M with 1,138 unique traders, showing a relatively active and diverse participant base.
The divergence between the price decline and whale net buying flow suggests conflicting signals: general market sentiment sharply lowered the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, while whales appear to be betting on the event’s occurrence.
This tension between price action and large trader behavior highlights uncertainty or differing interpretations of information among market participants. The combined data points to a complex dynamic where the broader market is less confident about the blockade, but whales maintain significant exposure to the YES outcome.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +25.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 56.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $105K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $189K / $84K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 207 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $157K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,138 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.