The probability of the US reissuing Iran oil sanction relief by July 31% rose sharply by 16.0 percentage points over the past day, climbing from an estimated 23.0% to 39.0% according to Polymarket’s latest data. This rapid repricing reflects a significant shift in market expectations within a single 24-hour window ending July 13, 2026.
Supporting the price move, whale trading activity aligned with the upward momentum, indicating that large investors committed fresh capital to the YES side in tandem with the price increase. The 24-hour trading volume on this contract reached $8K, underscoring active participation accompanying the repricing.
This coordinated price and flow movement suggests growing conviction among major market participants that the US will reinstate sanctions relief for Iranian oil by the specified deadline. The jump in implied probability and the backing from whale flows combine to signal a meaningful reassessment of this geopolitical event’s likelihood within the prediction market.
Overall, the data reveal a market rapidly adjusting to new information or sentiment, with whales reinforcing the price shift rather than opposing it. This convergence of price and large-scale trading activity provides a clearer picture of how expectations around US-Iran oil sanctions are evolving on Polymarket.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 39.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.