The prediction market “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” saw its YES contract price surge by 49.3 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 10.4% to 59.7%. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity aligned with this price movement, with a net inflow of $6K into YES contracts. Across 44 unique whales, buy volume reached $13K while sell volume totaled $7K, indicating that larger traders actively supported the bullish move. The total 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this market stood at $11K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $21K and involving 122 unique traders overall.
This combination of a large price jump and supportive whale flow suggests a coordinated reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will successfully target shipping on the specified date. The alignment between price and whale behavior underscores conviction among significant market participants, reinforcing the shift in odds within this relatively low-volume market.
Overall, the synchronized surge in YES pricing and whale buying activity signals a notable repositioning in expectations around this geopolitical event, marking a key moment in the market’s evolving narrative.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +49.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 10.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $13K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 44 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 122 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.