The probability that Anthropic will have the best Math AI model by the end of July 2026 surged 25.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 53.5% to 78.5% on Polymarket. This substantial repricing reflects increased market confidence in Anthropic’s competitive edge in the AI space.
Whale activity accompanied the price move, with 33 unique whales contributing a net $3K flow into YES contracts. These whales bought $6K worth of YES and sold $2K, indicating a clear alignment between large traders’ behavior and the price action. Total 24-hour volume on the market was $6K, matching whale buy volume, which underscores whales’ dominant role in driving this shift.
However, a notable caveat is the divergence between Polymarket’s YES price at 78.5% and Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 27.5%.
With lifetime market volume at $81K and 390 unique traders participating, the surge and whale flow confirm a significant reassessment of Anthropic’s prospects by both retail and large-scale participants. The combined rise in odds and whale buying signals growing conviction around Anthropic’s potential to lead in Math AI by the July 2026 deadline.
| Market | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2431051 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 78.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 53.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 27.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $2K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 33 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 390 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.