The probability of “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” on Polymarket plunged by 16.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 23.3% to 7.0%, according to the Polymarket Breaking feed on July 13, 2026. This sharp decline in the YES price contrasts with whale activity, which diverged from the price movement as whales did not increase their net positions in YES contracts during this period.
Trading volume for the market in the last 24 hours was $10K, reflecting moderate market engagement despite the substantial price adjustment. The divergence between whale flow and the price suggests that large traders either remained cautious or skeptical about the downward repricing, even as the broader market lowered the odds of the event occurring.
This dynamic highlights a split in market sentiment: while retail or smaller traders appear to have driven the price sharply lower, whales have refrained from confirming this move with significant purchases. The resulting tension between price action and whale flow underscores uncertainty about the likelihood of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 11.
Overall, the combined data signals a market that is re-evaluating the probability of this geopolitical event, with large traders not yet aligning with the recent sharp drop in odds.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835627 |
| 24h price change | +16.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 7.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.