The probability that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 rose sharply by 21.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 24.5% to 45.5%. This significant repricing reflects a surge of confidence among traders about the event’s likelihood.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, as 108 unique whales contributed a net $31K inflow into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $58K, while sell volume was $28K, indicating strong buying pressure from large players. The total 24-hour volume for this market also stood at $58K, matching whale buy volume and highlighting whales’ dominant role in driving the recent price shift.
Despite the Polymarket YES price now at 45.5%, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price overview remains lower at 29.0%, suggesting a divergence between Polymarket’s traded price and some on-chain metrics. The market has seen $215K in lifetime volume and features 603 unique traders, underscoring sustained interest.
This combined surge in price and whale buying signals a notable change in market sentiment toward Russia’s prospects of capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of July. The alignment of whale flow with the price increase indicates conviction rather than a countertrend move, marking this as a key moment in the market’s evolving odds.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +21.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 29.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $31K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $58K / $28K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 108 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $58K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 603 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.