A single $299K buy order from wallet @Dafu0715 on the Polymarket event “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” stands out sharply against the market consensus. At the time of the trade, the market-implied probability for this outcome was just 12.5%, marking it as a longshot. The size and direction of this wager signal a significant bet against the crowd.
@Dafu0715 is a seasoned participant in prediction markets, with a lifetime volume of $23.09M across 24,613 trades spanning 283 markets. Their resolved-market record shows 76.8% accuracy over 56 positions, accompanied by a Brier score of 0.2083, indicating a strong track record in forecasting outcomes.
This buy order aligns with broader whale activity in the market, where 110 unique whales have purchased $1.06M worth of shares in the last 24 hours, compared to $447K sold. The market’s total volume on this event is $13.54M, underscoring significant liquidity and interest.
The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” market has drawn attention as geopolitical tensions influence maritime flow. A large, contrarian bet from a high-accuracy trader like @Dafu0715 adds a distinct layer of insight into how informed participants view the scenario’s likelihood.
This trade exemplifies how sizable wagers can diverge from consensus probabilities, reflecting confident positioning by experienced whales amid a market with substantial volume and active money flow.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? |
| Event | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? |
| Wallet | @Dafu0715 · 0x93511d72d294f1478739bc38f578bf0306fd9e4d |
| Amount | $299K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-13T00:29:41Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.