PMX sentiment index hits 26.8, flagging deep risk-off mood with volume at 27-day low

The PMX composite sentiment index on Polydata dropped to 26.8 on a 0-100 scale where 50 is neutral, signaling a deeply risk-off mood in prediction markets. This reading reflects a broad pullback in market engagement across multiple dimensions tracked exclusively by Polydata’s proprietary PMX gauge.

Among the five PMX sub-indices, the weakest is PMX-Volume at 13.4, marking its lowest level in 27 days relative to its 30-day norm. This suggests trading volume has contracted sharply, dragging overall market activity down. PMX-Whale, measuring the balance of whale buy and sell activity, is the strongest sub-index but still remains below neutral at 39.1, also at its lowest in 27 days. The divergence between these two highlights uneven market behavior, with large traders slightly more active than the broader trading base but still subdued.

Other sub-indices reflect the risk-off sentiment: PMX-Politics stands at 21.9, PMX-Crypto at 31.0, and PMX-Sentiment at 27.8 — the latter also hitting a 27-day low. The PMX-Sentiment index captures average market-implied probabilities, indicating participants are pricing in less favorable outcomes.

Polydata’s PMX index consolidates trading volume, whale activity, political and crypto market engagement, plus implied probabilities into a single, exclusive metric. The current readings reveal a market sharply retreating from risk, with particularly weak volume signaling limited conviction behind moves. This uneven pattern between volume and whale activity suggests cautious positioning amid reduced overall participation.

Source: Polydata API v3 · /pmx-index · snapshot 2026-07-01. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.