A $314K buy order from wallet 0x45c3…59bf in the “Norway vs. England: Team to Advance” market stands out for its size and timing against market odds. At the moment of the trade, the market-implied probability of this outcome was 34.9%, making the wager a bet against the consensus price.
This wallet has a lifetime volume of $1.28M across 1,095 trades in two markets, marking it as an active participant but not necessarily a dominant player. The trade also aligns with a broader whale buying trend on this market, where $3.70M was bought versus $1.39M sold by 820 unique whales over the past 24 hours.
The market around the Norway vs. England event has seen total volume of $30.58M, indicating significant liquidity and interest. This single large buy order adds to the momentum of whale money pushing on this side of the market, despite the lower implied probability.
The trade’s significance lies in the combination of its size, the wallet’s activity profile, and its opposition to the market’s implied odds. It signals notable conviction from a whale participant who is moving substantial capital contrary to prevailing consensus pricing in a heavily traded market.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance |
| Event | Norway vs. England – More Markets |
| Wallet | 0x45c3488fd5f78adb7cc59f3f87988e2bcbb859bf |
| Amount | $314K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-11T23:49:16Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.