The market on whether Mitch McConnell will step down from the Senate before his term ends saw its YES price fall by 24.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 49.5% to 25.0% as of July 13, 2026. This represents a significant repricing of the probability that McConnell will resign early.
Notably, this sharp decline in price occurred even as whale activity diverged from the market move. Over the same period, 60 unique whales bought $29K and sold $15K in YES contracts, resulting in a net flow of $14K into YES positions. This contrasts with the overall market sentiment reflected in the price, which moved decisively lower.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market was $24K, with a lifetime volume of $303K and 895 unique traders participating. The on-chain Polydata YES price stands at 48.5%, substantially higher than the current Polymarket price of 25.0%, highlighting a notable discrepancy between the two data sources.
The divergence between whale net flow and the steep drop in price suggests a split in conviction: while retail traders and the market consensus have sharply lowered the probability of McConnell’s early resignation, whales have continued to increase their exposure to that outcome.
| Market | Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 637910 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 25.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 48.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $14K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $29K / $15K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 60 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 895 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.