The market “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?” saw its YES contract price surge 16.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, climbing from 79.5% to 95.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 12, 2026.
This sharp repricing was accompanied by aligned whale activity, with 42 unique whales collectively buying $7K and selling $3K worth of YES contracts, resulting in a net inflow of $4K into YES positions. Total 24-hour volume on this market reached $5K, part of a lifetime market volume of $61K involving 301 unique traders.
Despite the strong price rally and whale buying, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at a notably lower 58.0%, indicating a divergence between Polymarket’s order book and on-chain liquidity signals. The market’s rapid price increase, supported by whale flow moving in the same direction, suggests growing confidence among large traders that the Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by the end of July.
The combined effect of a 16pp price jump and whale net buying signals increasing conviction in this outcome, though the lower on-chain mid-price highlights some underlying uncertainty or differing liquidity conditions within the ecosystem.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2479863 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 95.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 79.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 58.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 42 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 301 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.