The probability that there will be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31 rose sharply by 17.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 25.8% to 43.5%.
This significant repricing coincided with whale activity that moved in tandem with the price shift, confirming the market’s new level of conviction rather than contradicting it. The 24-hour trading volume for this market reached $13K, indicating active engagement during the price move.
The alignment between large bets and the rising odds suggests that informed participants are increasingly betting on a substantial reduction in maritime traffic through the Strait by the end of July. This market reflects growing concerns or expectations about regional conditions affecting transit volumes.
With both price and whale flow pushing the YES side higher, the market is signaling a notably increased likelihood that daily transits will fall within this low range, marking a clear shift in sentiment within a single day.
| Market | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698835 |
| 24h price change | +17.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 43.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 25.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.