The probability that average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0 and 20 on July 31 rose sharply by 17.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 25.5% to 43.1%. This significant repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment regarding maritime traffic through this strategic chokepoint.
Supporting the price move, whale flow aligned with the upward adjustment in odds, indicating that large traders reinforced the market’s reassessment rather than opposing it. This alignment suggests that informed participants are backing the increased likelihood of a low volume of transits on that date.
Trading volume in the market reached $16K over the same period, signaling active engagement from a range of participants as the event date approaches. The combination of a sizable price jump and confirming whale flow points to a growing consensus on the potential for reduced maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz on July 31.
The reinforced odds and whale support together underscore a notable shift in the market’s outlook for this critical maritime passage.
| Market | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698835 |
| 24h price change | +17.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 43.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 25.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.