The Polymarket contract “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?” experienced a sharp decline in its YES price over the past 24 hours, dropping 24.5 percentage points from an estimated 38.5% to 14.0% as of July 12, 2026. This steep repricing signals a significant shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of the IPO happening by the stated deadline.
Interestingly, whale activity diverged from this price movement. Despite the sharp fall in the YES price, whales collectively bought $9K worth of YES contracts while selling $4K, resulting in a net flow of $4K into YES positions.
The 24-hour volume on this market totaled $10K, with 32 unique whales participating among 368 total unique traders since the market’s inception. The lifetime volume stands at $198K, indicating moderate liquidity and engagement for this event.
A notable discrepancy exists between the Polymarket YES price of 14.0% and Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 75.0%, underscoring a significant divergence in pricing data sources. This gap further complicates interpretation of the market’s consensus.
The combined picture of a steep drop in YES price accompanied by whale buying suggests a contested outlook on Anthropic’s IPO timeline, with large traders potentially betting against the recent price decline or valuing information not yet reflected in the price. This tension highlights the dynamic interplay of market forces shaping the contract’s evolving odds.
| Market | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2421094 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 14.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 38.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 75.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 32 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 368 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.