The market on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 saw a 31.0 percentage point rise in its YES contract price over the past 24 hours, climbing from 32.5% to 63.5%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in the market’s view on this outcome.
Whale activity tracked alongside this price move, with net inflows of $26K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume stood at $49K, more than double the $23K in sell volume, across 94 unique whales, indicating broad participation among larger traders. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $44K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $194K and involving 568 unique traders overall.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 63.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 43.5%, highlighting a divergence between the platform’s latest trade data and the aggregated on-chain valuation. Despite this, whale flows and the price move aligned, reinforcing the conviction behind the recent rally.
This combined surge in price and whale buying suggests that large traders are increasingly confident in Russia’s capture of Kostyantynivka before the July 31 deadline. The market’s rapid adjustment and the accompanying whale participation mark a clear shift in sentiment on this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +31.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 63.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $26K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $49K / $23K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 94 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $44K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 568 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.