The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw a dramatic rise in its YES price, climbing 92.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours to reach 94.5%, up from approximately 2.5% a day earlier. This sharp move reflects a near-complete market consensus that the event will occur.
Whale activity aligned with this price surge, with 80 unique whales contributing $18K in buy volume against $7K in sell volume, resulting in a net $11K flow into YES. The overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract totaled $22K, representing a significant share of its lifetime volume of $29K. A total of 173 unique traders have participated since inception.
The strong whale buying alongside the price increase signals conviction among large traders supporting the likelihood of the event. The alignment between whale flow and the tape suggests that the rapid repricing is backed by substantial capital rather than isolated speculative bets.
This combined surge in price and whale demand indicates the market now prices the event as highly probable, reflecting a major shift in sentiment within a single day.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +92.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 94.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 80 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $22K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 173 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.