The probability that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12 soared by 88.8 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 2.3% to 91.0% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed. This dramatic shift reflects a swift reassessment of the event’s likelihood within a single day.
Whale trading activity supported this repricing, with net inflows of $11K into YES contracts. Over the same period, whales executed $18K in buy volume against $7K in sells, signaling a majority of large traders increased their exposure to the YES outcome. The market saw participation from 80 unique whales, contributing to a total 24-hour volume of $21K. In context, the lifetime market volume stands at $28K, with 171 unique traders overall.
The alignment between whale flows and the sharp price increase suggests that large traders and general market momentum moved in tandem to push the odds dramatically higher. This convergence underscores a concentrated shift in sentiment or new information driving consensus toward a high likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on the specified date.
Such a rapid and coordinated move in price and whale activity highlights the market’s responsiveness and the significant conviction among large participants. The combined surge in probability and whale backing signals that the market now prices this event as a near certainty within the prediction timeframe.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +88.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 91.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 80 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 171 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.