The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by December 31 jumped 17.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 41.0% to 58.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed. This sharp repricing was accompanied by significant whale activity, with 112 unique whales contributing a net $29K flow into YES contracts during the same period.
Whale buy volume reached $46K, outpacing $17K in sell volume, indicating a clear alignment between large traders and the price movement. Total 24-hour volume on the market also stood at $46K, reflecting concentrated interest and trading around this event.
Despite this, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price overview shows a much lower YES probability at 25.5%, highlighting a notable divergence between Polymarket’s live price and on-chain data. The lifetime market volume is $390K with 598 unique traders recorded, underscoring steady engagement over time.
The combined surge in price and whale buying signals suggests increased conviction among large traders that the US will impose a blockade on Iran before year-end.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643406 |
| 24h price change | +17.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $29K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $46K / $17K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 112 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $46K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 598 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.