The yes contract on “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” soared 93.1 percentage points in 24 hours, climbing from 2.2% to 95.3%, signaling a dramatic shift in market expectations. This repricing was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the price move, with 78 unique whales buying $18K and selling $7K, resulting in a net $11K inflow into yes positions.
The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $21K, representing a significant portion of the market’s lifetime volume of $28K. The market also attracted 166 unique traders over its lifetime, indicating broad participation alongside concentrated whale interest.
This synchronized surge in both price and whale buying suggests a strong consensus among large traders that the event will occur, reinforcing the market’s rapid repricing. The combination of a near-total probability shift and substantial whale inflows highlights a decisive market reaction to new information or developments related to Iran’s targeting of shipping on July 12.
Such a rapid and coordinated move among whales and the broader market underscores the weight of conviction behind this outcome, marking it as a focal point for Polymarket participants on July 12.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +93.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 95.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 78 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 166 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.