The Polymarket contract asking if the US will announce a blockade on Iran by August 31 saw its YES price surge 20.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 31.5% to 51.5%. This sharp repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale trading activity aligned closely with the price move, with a net inflow of $27K into YES contracts during the same period. These large traders accounted for $50K in buy volume against $23K in sells, involving 105 unique whale wallets. The total 24-hour volume on this market reached $57K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $129K across 244 unique traders.
While Polymarket’s current YES price stands at 51.5%, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price lags at 35.5%, indicating some divergence between on-chain data and the Polymarket interface. Nonetheless, the congruence of whale buying with the price increase underlines a coordinated market reassessment of the likelihood of a US blockade announcement by the stated deadline.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2821347 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 51.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 35.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $27K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $50K / $23K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 105 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $57K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 244 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.