The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply by 23.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 31.5% to 55.0%. This dramatic shift in market sentiment was accompanied by substantial whale activity, with 101 unique whales contributing $48K in buy volume against $22K in sell volume, resulting in a net $26K inflow into YES contracts.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market reached $54K, nearly matching the total lifetime volume of $127K, highlighting a surge in trader interest. The total number of unique traders engaged in the market stands at 239, indicating broad participation beyond the whale cohort.
Whale flow aligned closely with the price move, confirming the market’s repricing rather than diverging from it. Notably, the Polymarket YES price of 55.0% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 35.5%, suggesting some discrepancy between the platform’s live price and on-chain data.
This coordinated rise in both price and whale buying signals growing conviction among large traders that a US blockade announcement by the end of August is becoming more likely—or at least that market participants are pricing in that possibility with increased confidence. The combined surge in price and whale flow indicates a significant shift in market expectations.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2821347 |
| 24h price change | +23.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 55.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 35.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $26K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $48K / $22K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 101 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $54K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 239 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.