The market “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw its YES price leap 91.0 percentage points in 24 hours, climbing from 2.2% to 93.2%. This dramatic repricing reflects sharp new expectations that such an event will occur on that date.
Whales supported the price surge with net inflows of $11K into YES contracts over the same period. Their buy volume reached $17K, outpacing $7K in sell volume. This buying activity came from 75 unique whales, showing broad participation among large traders.
Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question was $15K, with lifetime market volume at $24K. The market has attracted 160 unique traders overall, indicating a concentrated but active betting pool.
The alignment between whale flow and the sharp price move suggests that large traders are driving the shift in market sentiment rather than merely following it. The strong whale conviction combined with the steep rise in odds signals a consensus buildup toward the event occurring on July 12.
In sum, the coordinated surge in price and whale buying points to a major reconsideration of the likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on that date, reshaping market expectations substantially within a day.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +91.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 93.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $17K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 75 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 160 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.