PMX composite at 31.9 signals deep risk-off mood, crypto and politics hit 40-day lows

The PMX composite index stands at 31.9 on a 0-100 scale where 50 is neutral, indicating a deeply risk-off mood across prediction markets. This measure, exclusive to Polydata, aggregates five sub-indices reflecting trading volume, whale activity, political engagement, crypto market activity, and overall sentiment.

Among these, the PMX-Politics sub-index plunged to 13.8, marking its lowest point in 40 days and signaling a sharp drop in political-market activity. Crypto-market activity, as captured by PMX-Crypto, is even weaker at 3.9, also at a 40-day low. These readings highlight a significant pullback in two key areas of market engagement.

In contrast, PMX-Whale, measuring whale buy/sell balance, holds at 44.6, the strongest of the sub-indices but still below neutral. Trading volume is also subdued, with PMX-Volume at 20.0, reinforcing the subdued overall market activity. Average market-implied probability, represented by PMX-Sentiment, sits just above the composite at 31.0, consistent with the broader risk-off stance.

This divergence between the weakest sub-index, PMX-Crypto at 3.9, and the relatively stronger PMX-Whale at 44.6 reveals an uneven market mood rather than a uniform retreat. The sharp drop in political and crypto activity suggests market participants are retreating from these riskier or more volatile sectors, while whale behavior remains comparatively more balanced.

The PMX composite and its sub-indices provide a nuanced snapshot of market sentiment not available elsewhere, underscoring the current cautious stance among prediction market participants.

Source: Polydata API v3 · /pmx-index · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.