The probability that SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 15 collapsed by 30.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, plunging from 31.1% to 0.40%. This dramatic repricing signals a major shift in market sentiment about the near-term launch prospects.
Notably, this price movement occurred alongside a divergence in whale activity. While the YES contract’s price tumbled sharply, whale flow did not align with the selloff, indicating that large traders did not significantly increase bets against the launch. This contrast between price action and whale behavior underscores uncertainty or possible disagreement among the biggest market participants about the likelihood of the event.
The total trading volume on the market over the last 24 hours was $8K, suggesting moderate engagement from the broader Polymarket community amid this volatility.
Overall, the combined picture of a steep fall in YES price alongside neutral whale flow highlights a market in flux, where retail traders appear to be driving the rapid price adjustment while whales remain on the sidelines or hold differing views.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +30.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.40% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.