The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 surged 23.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 21.5% to 45.0% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 12.
Whale activity confirmed this dramatic price move, with net inflows of $160K into YES contracts. Total whale buy volume reached $308K against $148K in sells, involving 289 unique whale traders. This flow alignment with the price move underlines strong buying interest among large participants.
Despite the sharp rise, the Polymarket YES price of 45.0% contrasts with a lower Polydata on-chain mid-price of 25.5%, indicating some divergence between market sentiment and on-chain valuation metrics.
Trading volume in the last 24 hours hit $288K, contributing significantly to the market’s lifetime volume of $885K and engaging 904 unique traders so far.
This combination of a near doubling in market-implied odds and whale buying pressure signals a rapid shift in sentiment around the likelihood of a US blockade on Iran by the end of July, reflecting heightened attention or new information driving demand for YES exposure in this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +23.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $160K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $308K / $148K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 289 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $288K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 904 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.