The probability that the United States will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, surged 18.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 28.5% to 46.5% on Polymarket. This marks a significant shift in market sentiment on this geopolitical event as traders reassess the likelihood of US naval movements in a strategically sensitive waterway.
Whale trading activity supported this price movement, with net flows into the YES contract aligning with the tape and reinforcing the higher odds. The $7K volume traded in the last 24 hours indicates moderate liquidity behind this repricing, suggesting that the increase is backed by meaningful market participation rather than thin trading.
The combined effect of the price jump and whale flow alignment signals growing conviction among large traders that the probability of US warships passing through the Strait of Hormuz before the end of July 2026 has increased substantially. This repricing reflects heightened market focus on potential US naval strategy in the region, with whale activity confirming rather than opposing the shift in consensus.
| Market | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2761559 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 46.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 28.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.