A $485K sell order on the “Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” market was executed by wallet 0xc609…2348, marking a significant position against the market’s implied probability of 0.05% for this outcome. This trade represents a notable wager on an outcome with an extremely low market-implied chance at the snapshot.
The broader whale activity on this market over the past 24 hours shows $7.48M in buying versus $2.32M in selling across 1,492 unique whale wallets, indicating that this $485K sell trade runs counter to the prevailing whale flow. The market itself has accumulated $137.28M in total volume within the “World Cup Winner” event, which spans 50 markets and has generated $3.89B in lifetime volume with 147,093 traders participating.
Wallet 0xc609…2348 has a very limited track record, with just $1 in lifetime volume, a single trade, and involvement in only one market. This contrasts with the event’s largest trader, who accounts for 5.5% of total event volume, and the event’s biggest winner and loser who have seen estimated PnL swings of $49.69M and -$200.45M respectively.
The market closes in 8 days, leaving time for further shifts in positioning. This large sell order on Norway’s World Cup win highlights a significant bet on a low-probability outcome, diverging from the broader whale buying trend and reflecting individual risk appetite amid a highly liquid and active event market.
| Direction | SELL |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0xc609dab36f69b28da2e9fcb1d70d333484472348 |
| Amount | $485K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-12T01:17:07Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.